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2019-nCoV (Coronavirus)

giles

Cull buck specialist
Supporting Member
That second link is GOLD! I really liked this part.

“Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.”
 
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Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,067
274
I just looked at the map and it looks like franklin county has jumped 1,000 cases in a couple of days. I didn’t see that jump on your graphs.

The graphs were to illustrate a point about rapid VS prolonged transmission rates and not an up to date representation of cases. 😅
 

giles

Cull buck specialist
Supporting Member
The graphs were to illustrate a point about rapid VS prolonged transmission rates and not an up to date representation of cases. 😅
I’m guilty of only looking at the pictures. I didn’t hardly read any of what you guys said. Sounded all smart and stuff. I wasn’t following what you guys were saying. Had me cornfuzed
 
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Hedgelj

Senior Member
Supporting Member
8,207
189
Mohicanish
That second link is GOLD! I really liked this part.

“Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.”
The problem is we haven't figured out why person A is asymptomatic or mild vs person B being critically sick other than some broad generalizations. We also don't have a true treatment strategy that we know works.

So my feelings are overall risk low unless you draw aces over eights in which case good luck.
 

Bowkills

Well-Known Member
2,577
85
Nw oh
I’m guilty of only looking at the pictures. I didn’t hardly read any of what you guys said. Sounded all smart and stuff. I wasn’t following what you guys were saying. Had me cornfuzed
☝☝☝☝☝- # positive covid people
0- deaths or hospitalized people with covid
Easier graph I made from my covid data
 

giles

Cull buck specialist
Supporting Member
The problem is we haven't figured out why person A is asymptomatic or mild vs person B being critically sick other than some broad generalizations. We also don't have a true treatment strategy that we know works.

So my feelings are overall risk low unless you draw aces over eights in which case good luck.
I still don’t understand who/what/why we stopped the world. Let me rephrase that, the only reason I can come up with, is total economic collapse. When the oil market dropped out, is when I started looking around.
 

Blan37

Member
1,795
72
SW Ohio
My concern isn’t so much the virus being a conspiracy, but the actions of those in charge making the decisions. And what their end game is. They make it sound like they’re worried about the little guy but I think we know better than that....
I think it's a mix of both. Some genuinely care, and some only care about how they can take advantage of the crisis.
 
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Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
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I still don’t understand who/what/why we stopped the world. Let me rephrase that, the only reason I can come up with, is total economic collapse. When the oil market dropped out, is when I started looking around.

Because the two previous corona viruses in the past 15 years had 15% and 35% confirmed mortality rates. The initial data out of Wuhan and then Itally and Spain showed a very very concerning situation. What we know now however does not necessitate such a sustained reaction. The initial reaction of ordering social distancing and even stay at home was warranted. But those are the easy things. Where they failed is the things that actually require production. Vents, masks, treatment options, contact tracing programs, increased medical capacity etc. Basically everything that requires more than just talk.

The oil situation was due to the saudis fucking with Russia and trying to price them out of the European market by flooding supply with cheap oil. Then corona hit and demand plumeted and the price crashed.
 

Blan37

Member
1,795
72
SW Ohio
Just came across this article. Never heard of the 1969 flu, and it sounds like it wasn't really thought of as all that newsworthy even back then. The contrast of the response of that generation compared to this one is pretty interesting. Are we just a bunch of wusses now, or are we wiser? :unsure:

Granted, we don't make a big deal out of the flu in our time either, so who knows how things might have been different with a new virus the world had never
seen before, but I have to wonder if that generation would have just let the virus do what it was gonna do:

H3N2 (or the “Hong Kong flu,” as it was more popularly known) was an influenza strain that the New York Times described as “one of the worst in the nation’s history.” The first case of H3N2, which evolved from the H2N2 influenza strain that caused the 1957 pandemic, was reported in mid-July 1968 in Hong Kong. By September, it had infected Marines returning to the States from the Vietnam War. By mid-December, the Hong Kong flu had arrived in all fifty states.

But schools were not shut down nationwide, other than a few dozen because of too many sick teachers. Face masks weren’t required or even common. Though Woodstock was not held during the peak months of the H3N2 pandemic (the first wave ended by early March 1969, and it didn’t flare up again until November of that year), the festival went ahead when the virus was still active and had no known cure.

“I wish they had social distancing at Woodstock,” jokes Lydon, who now lives in Delray Beach, Florida, and works as a purchasing manager for MDVIP, a network of primary care doctors. “You had to climb over people to get anywhere.”

“Life continued as normal,” said Jeffrey Tucker, the editorial director for the American Institute for Economic Research. “But as with now, no one knew for certain how deadly [the pandemic] would turn out to be. Regardless, people went on with their lives.”

Which, he said, isn’t all that surprising. “That generation approached viruses with calm, rationality and intelligence,” he said. “We left disease mitigation to medical professionals, individuals and families, rather than politics, politicians and government.”


While it’s way too soon to compare the numbers, H3N2 has so far proved deadlier than COVID-19. Between 1968 and 1970, the Hong Kong flu killed between an estimated one and four million, according to the CDC and Encyclopaedia Britannica, with US deaths exceeding 100,000. As of this writing, COVID-19 has killed more than 295,000 globally and around 83,000 in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University. But by all projections, the coronavirus will surpass H3N2’s body count even with a global shutdown.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/
 
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Sgt Fury

Sgt. Spellchecker
With all of the misinformation or lack of it, people who get it are scared. I’m pretty sure I had it but the symptoms were not bad enough that I thought I needed a trip to the hospital. My wife was scared because she has had trouble taking deep breaths and chest pain. It wore on her nerves so I took her to the emergency room. We’ve been here for over four hours. They wouldn’t let me in so I’m sitting in the parking lot. Her diagnosis after chest X-rays is that she has pneumonia, that’s what is causing her chest pain. They also took a swab to test for the virus and she should know in a couple of days.. They gave her Motrin and told her to continue with the Tylenol. Her vitals were good so after she is done with her iv for fluids (she was dehydrated), they are letting her go home. If it was a regular flu, I don’t think she would’ve went to the ER but with all of the propaganda on TV, she was very worried. Her temp was 104 this morning and is at 103 now. It pains me to see her struggling to cough. Hopefully the worst part is behind her.