From my experience in a heavily pressured area with small properties, for 2.5 and 3.5 year olds, 7 out of 10 disappear or get killed by someone else, 2.5 times come back and then disappear or get killed by someone else, and I get to close the deal 0.5 times out of 10.
@Diablo54 was busting my chops on FB about my comments regarding the gradual deterioration (rack wise) on our old age class bucks. This buck was the topic of conversation. Used to be, he was average in his age group and now he's the biggest by a good margin. I'd love to pass him and see him again at 5, but no one else in my neighborhood is doing the same, so why would I rob myself a bird in the hand this season for a 5% chance at success next year?
I think Taylor thought I was a hypocrite for saying you can't kill great bucks if you kill good ones, and then saying I'd shoot this one even though he's a "disappointing" 4 year old by expectations still rooted in the "good old days".
@xbowguy chimed in on the same thread and Rick makes it sound so simple, and I suppose not shooting potential great bucks is "simple", but there's nothing simple about the entire life cycle that must play out for you to reap that reward and effectively all you control, is your tension on the trigger.
At the end of the day, shoot what makes you happy and keep your expectations realistic. I like killing deer and currently, couldn't do what
@Spencie and others do in terms of being picky. Too much "peer pressure" around our farm for me to give up a bird in the hand.