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2019-nCoV (Corona Virus)

giles

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Jesse, let’s not get the cart ahead of the horse here. Day by day my friend. Stressing over it now doesn’t do anyone any good. Keep doing what you are. Those girls will never forget these times!!! It will be all those great memories that they will remember.
 
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Jackalope

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So I was thinking today. And this is some scary shit. What if the 80% of cases they're talking about that supposedly go undetected because they're mild is actually a load of BS. What if SARS-2 has a mortality rate more like it's similar cousin MERS at 34%

Data like this from Italy is not comforting. They've have 76k active cases and 16.8 that either got well or died.
Screenshot_20200325-185820_Chrome.jpg


The hope that the above isn't true does have some positive evidence though. It could simply be indicative of a lack of test availability. If you only test the really sick like the US is doing then your rates will look different. Case in point we know that South Korea did very extensive testing and identified a bunch of cases. They have about 9k active and 3k resolved.

Screenshot_20200325-190751_Chrome.jpg
 

Schu72

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What pisses me off is the inaccurate reporting. The problem isn't that Chloriquin is not FDA approved. It's been approved since October of 1949 and it's a very safe drug. It's even approved for infants, pregnant women, and women who are breastfeeding. Shit that makes it safer than benadryl. The reason they're holding it up is because it's not been FDA approved to treat Covid."
Not sure anything is being held up. Our director of Pharmacy reported out today that they received 2000 doses of Hydrochloreqine yesterday. I'm sure we aren't planning on a rush of malaria patients.

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Outside

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There are a few manufacturing sites in the US to make Plaquenil (HCQ Sulfate). A weeks worth of a time in a 1000 gal reactor can make about 600 lbs of HCQ. That's worth about 500,000 doses (assuming the maximum 600 mg dose, per person, per day). Once the trial results come back in, I bet you'll see more HCQ being used. As someone above said, it's fairly well tolerated. My guess is that there are a few tollers who are currently getting qualified with FDA to make more, depending on demand. Most of it is sold to Arthritis patients and those with Lupus. It really isn't used for malaria any more. There are better malaria drugs (Primaquine Phosphate, etc).
 

Jackalope

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Not sure anything is being held up. Our director of Pharmacy reported out today that they received 2000 doses of Hydrochloreqine yesterday. I'm sure we aren't planning on a rush of malaria patients.

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Oh it's there for people with Lupus and Arthritis. But for Covid unfortunately treating sick people is only a solution for sick people, aka we'll all become sick people eventually. While treatment is important we need a prophylactic that gets people back out of their house and back to work. It's either that or we have to massively ramp up testing, contact tracing and forced quarantine tactics to create a barrier. We can't just close everything to slow it down and not have a preventive plan. Locking people in their homes and closing business for the next 9 months so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed simply isn't sustainable. Chloroquine and Zink have been shown to dramatically hamper the progression of the infection and dramatically reduce how serious it is.

A study by the CDC on this wouldn't take much time at all. A few weeks to see if it was effective. One avenue is to use census data and the postal service to deliver chloroquine and zink to every household in America. If there are side effects then deal with those people and treat them for side effects. I'm sure that's a much more desirable treatment plan than treating mass amounts of people for Covid. Even if it's not massively effective, If we could realistically reduce the impact of Covid to that of the Flu or a cold that would be a massive improvement over what we're facing now... Something is better than nothing, and chloroquine side effects look way better than the side effects of Covid.
 

Outside

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From the trials I have read, the dose was 600 mg (maximum daily) for HCQ. Normally Lupus and arthritis patients are taking between 200 - 400 mg / day. But I tend to agree with those who suggest studies. Hopefully something good with come from Mr. Cuomo's idea to give 1000 people the drug, and test the result. Ramming Speed!
 

Jackalope

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So the WHO said this today. The only one that I really see happening quickly here in the US is the first one. The third one is still massively slow. The rest of them. Well. It'll be Christmas at this pace.


"
WHO Press Briefing:

"We understand that countries are trying to assess when and how they will be able to ease these measures.

The answer depends on what countries do while these population-wide measures are in place.

Asking people to stay at home and shutting down population movement is buying time and reducing the pressure on health systems, but on their own, these measures will not extinguish the epidemics.

The point of these actions is to enable the more precise and targeted measures that are needed to stop transmission and save lives. We call on all countries that have introduced so-called "lockdown" measures to use this time to attack the virus. You have created a second window of opportunity. The question is: how will you use it? There are 6 key actions that we recommend:

1. expand, train, and deploy your health care and public health workforce

2. implement a system to find every suspected case at the community level

3. ramp up production capacity and availability of testing

4. identify, adapt, and equipt facilities you will use to treat patients

5. develop a clear plan and process to quarantine contacts

6. refocus the whole of government on suppressing and controlling COVID-19

These measures are the best way to suppress and stop transmission so that when restrictions are lifted, the virus doesn't resurge.

The last thing any country needs is to reopen schools and businesses only to be forced to close them again because of a resurgence"
 

Outside

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Cuomo appeared to ask for #4, on Sunday. He seemed to have somewhat of a plan (increase in hospital capacity, create new hospitals on SUNY sites, ask for help from CDC/FEMA). I don't know if he got the help, but I can't imagine that it would hurt anything to give it to him. 25% of the US GDP comes from the three hardest infected places (CA, IL & NY). It's interesting to note that none of the items listed in the WHO list appears to include vaccine development, nor serologic testing of survivors. I wonder why.
 

Jackalope

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From the trials I have read, the dose was 600 mg (maximum daily) for HCQ. Normally Lupus and arthritis patients are taking between 200 - 400 mg / day. But I tend to agree with those who suggest studies. Hopefully something good with come from Mr. Cuomo's idea to give 1000 people the drug, and test the result. Ramming Speed!
Ramming speed indeed. This is a country that built 23 aircraft carriers in the 3 years and 10 months between the attack on Pearl and the surrender of Japan. That's not including the battleships, cruisers and other escort ships. We can do this, but we have to do this at a massively faster scale.
 

Jackalope

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Cuomo appeared to ask for #4, on Sunday. He seemed to have somewhat of a plan (increase in hospital capacity, create new hospitals on SUNY sites, ask for help from CDC/FEMA). I don't know if he got the help, but I can't imagine that it would hurt anything to give it to him. 25% of the US GDP comes from the three hardest infected places (CA, IL & NY). It's interesting to note that none of the items listed in the WHO list appears to include vaccine development, nor serologic testing of survivors. I wonder why.
I would assume because they're beating the war drum of 'reduce transmission through identification and containment and systematically ramp up treatment capabilities."

When we see that "flatten the curve" graphic, they keep hammering social distancing and stay at home. I have only seen one that mentions the ramp up of medical capabilities. Usually it's just a static flat line.

flatten-the-curve-smaller (1).gif
 

Outside

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My personal concern is the 'lets restart on Easter'. I hope that quietly goes away. I'd also like to see someone at FDA explain (in plain language) the testing reagent issue. I find it hard to believe that there are any supplies which are truly difficult to make. I got the sense it was a 'cGLP' issue.
 

Jackalope

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My personal concern is the 'lets restart on Easter'. I hope that quietly goes away. I'd also like to see someone at FDA explain (in plain language) the testing reagent issue. I find it hard to believe that there are any supplies which are truly difficult to make. I got the sense it was a 'cGLP' issue.
Indeed. Or better yet explain why they didn't simply adopt the WHO test invented in Germany and instead set out to design a new test that looked for 3 markers instead of the 1 marker that had been proven accurate. A colossal blunder that cost us valuable time.
 

Wildlife

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Good morning patriots!

I'm quite optimistic regarding what the overall outcome of this pandemic and I have to say that our President has shown great leadership in this time of crisis.

He can't be bought (He's filthy rich) and I truly believe that not only is he looking out for his own family, but all of us hard working patriots throughout as well. He's the working man's President doing the job that he really didn't have to do, but he answered the call that drove him to be our President, which I'm grateful for.

Trump truly is the perfect individual to lead our nation through a time of economic recovery. I'm sure he is bar far more privy/informed to what's actually happening throughout the country and the entire world for that matter.

I doubt he would make the statement about opening up the country if he didn't have/believe in the possibilities. He knows more than most no doubt.

Just watch his demeanor while in the public eye, confident, enthusiastic, strong and healthy for a man his age.

I have faith in his plan, the storm is upon us and we'll get through this together as Americans.

Now, here's a article that I believe is worth checking out. I'll be working today trying to acquire more relevant information that I hope ease some worries some may have.

Look out for one another, remain vigilant and always try to do the right thing.

If anyone is in dyer need of something, please don't hesitate to ask. I'll do whatever I can to help

Thank you and have a great day!
_________________________________

Nobel laureate predicts US will have much faster coronavirus recovery than expected

Stanford University biophysicist Michael Levitt correctly calculated China would get through the worst of its coronavirus epidemic earlier than most health experts estimated. Now he sees a similar outcome for the United States and other affected countries.

A Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist estimates the United States may see a downturn in new coronavirus cases sooner than health experts have predicted, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Stanford University biology professor Michael Levitt, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, said his models do not support predictions the coronavirus will stick around for months or years and cause millions of deaths. He says the data do not support such an extreme scenario.

“What we need is to control the panic...we’re going to be fine,” Levitt told the Los Angeles Times.


Levitt previously predicted accurately when China would get through the worst of its COVID-19 crisis. The Nobel Prize winner predicted China would peak around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths. He was not far off, as China has reported more than 81,000 cases with more than 3,200 deaths.

Levitt said he can see a better outcome in the U.S. than what has taken place in China, Italy or Iran, especially with social distancing measures in place. He said social-distancing mandates are critical in cutting the number of coronavirus cases.

Source and there are several others out there as well: https://thehill.com/changing-americ...15-nobel-laureate-predicts-us-will-experience