2019-nCoV (Coronavirus)

[Jackalope]

So if Iran has 54 dead and 175 recovered, wouldn’t that give a death rate of 54/(175+54) = 23.6% ?

And for Italy 29/(29+46) = 38.7% ?

Maybe they’re just dropping the death rate because there’s people surviving that never get hospitalized or tested? I would think you wouldn’t count current cases in the percentages because you don’t know if they will die yet.

I see what you're saying but they don't do dead vs well. It's dead vs total number infected. That's because some are tested postmortem. A tick is added to the dead and the total infected column when that happens. However the death toll.could be far less because of unreported cases of people who were never added to the total column.

 

[hickslawns]

No prayers to stock up on. I'm good. Thanks though.

Masks don't stop it. They stop (reduce) you from spreading it. I'm not walking around for months in Tyvex suit, mask, goggles, decontaminating everything. It is a virus. A virus needs to run its course. Some live. Some die. If it blows up, I don't think all the precautions in the world will prevent me from getting it. That is all I'm saying. Got to live and enjoy life. No need to fear death. Father Time is undefeated. We won't beat him. Will I avoid airlines, hospitals, nursing homes, etc? Bet your bottom dollar I will. I already wash my hands a lot. Dr Drew gave names of people to ask about this. Doctors with decades in infectious disease. He is right. Media blowing it up. You buying into it.

 

[Jackalope]

No prayers to stock up on. I'm good. Thanks though.

Masks don't stop it. They stop (reduce) you from spreading it. I'm not walking around for months in Tyvex suit, mask, goggles, decontaminating everything. It is a virus. A virus needs to run its course. Some live. Some die. If it blows up, I don't think all the precautions in the world will prevent me from getting it. That is all I'm saying. Got to live and enjoy life. No need to fear death. Father Time is undefeated. We won't beat him. Will I avoid airlines, hospitals, nursing homes, etc? Bet your bottom dollar I will. I already wash my hands a lot. Dr Drew gave names of people to ask about this. Doctors with decades in infectious disease. He is right. Media blowing it up. You buying into it.

They also stop/reduce you from getting it. That's why every hospital in America is scrambling their asses off trying to source masks. The masks are also certified to those standards in very stringent testing requirement. There are varying degrees to these "viruses" each requiring various levels of response. This is not the common cold or Flu.

I'm not buying in to shit the media says. The FACT is the mortality rate of COVID-19 is running about 20 times that of the flu, and is about 3 times as contagous according to the WHO.

And as for doctors with decades in infectious disease go. Here's one for you. And he is not some TV pundit doctor. See he is actually the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"The mortality rate of the flu is around 0.1%, while coronavirus' mortality rate is approximately 2 to 2.3%, "

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/co...-spread-within-united-states-dr-anthony-fauci

 

[Dannmann801]

Heard about panic buying this weekend but was out of town. When I got back home last evening I went to Kroger and it looked like normal, there was still cheap bottled water and plenty of everything normal. Went to Sam's at 715 this morning on the way to work. Pallets of paper towels and toilet paper right at the entrance. Walked around, groceries looked fully stocked. Only saw one casualty...

 

[Geezer II]

Most hand santiziers don't contain alcohol in their formulation and are not effective for destroying a virus

 

[Jackalope]

New death in Washington. New cases reported in Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida and Oregon.

Understand that the virus can exist for a week or two in an area before people start showing symptoms. The CDC and WHO have proven cases of asymptomatic transmission however they're hesitant to say just how contagious people are before showing symptoms. Both agree however that transmission risks are far higher when a person displays symptoms like coughing and sneezing. Add in that most people will initially think they have the cold or flu until symptoms worsen will increase spread. All of the places above land passengers daily at Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati airports.

In my opinion its time to start social distancing, avoiding unessary public places, hand and object sanitization. Etc.

 

[Hedgelj]

New death in Washington. New cases reported in Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida and Oregon.

Understand that the virus can exist for a week or two in an area before people start showing symptoms. The CDC and WHO have proven cases of asymptomatic transmission however they're hesitant to say just how contagious people are before showing symptoms. Both agree however that transmission risks are far higher when a person displays symptoms like coughing and sneezing. Add in that most people will initially think they have the cold or flu until symptoms worsen will increase spread. All of the places above land passengers daily at Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati airports.

In my opinion its time to start social distancing, avoiding unessary public places, hand and object sanitization. Etc.

It's up to the individual to decide the risk mitigation they prefer but overall i think you are fairly spot on.

I think the next 6 weeks are going to be interesting.

 

[giles]

Not a good time to travel or play tourist. Home body time until this shakes out a little more. Kinda glad we aren’t chasing a kids sport at the moment. I don’t think I trust low wage employee to clean my hotel room.

 

[Clay Showalter]

Don't you have some prayers to stock up on? I pasted the wrong link. Location is irrelevant but since you're so concerned, here is the Brooklyn one and a bunch more.

This seems a little too personal on both sides. Why attack someone talking about being prepared and then why turn around and make a jab at someone’s faith.

 

[Dannmann801]

It's up to the individual to decide the risk mitigation they prefer but overall i think you are fairly spot on.

I think the next 6 weeks are going to be interesting.

I think the next week is going to be interesting.

 

[giles]

How many places in the US can test for this now?

 

[Hedgelj]

From Friday in the New England Journal of medicine.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

.......
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

Good news showing it may not be as deadly depending on how it's defined.

......
Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms.
.........
However, given the efficiency of transmission as indicated in the current report, we should be prepared for Covid-19 to gain a foothold throughout the world, including in the United States. Community spread in the United States could require a shift from containment to mitigation strategies such as social distancing in order to reduce transmission. Such strategies could include isolating ill persons (including voluntary isolation at home), school closures, and telecommuting where possible.9

Joe is not wrong...

 

[Jackalope]

This seems a little too personal on both sides. Why attack someone talking about being prepared and then why turn around and make a jab at someone’s faith.

It wasn't a jab at someone's faith, it was a jab at how reliance on faith has no real bearing on physical preparedness against real-world pandemic response planning and prevention. In the 1300s the world had more Christians as a percent of the population than today, however over a third of the world's population was wiped out by the black plague. If someone wants to perpetuate the belief that this is nothing more than an overblown panic crafted by the media and politicians, and the only evidence they can bring to support that is a TV Pundit and Jesus, then expect to have that challenged.

This isn't coming from some guy pulling it out of his ass. My career revolves around making sure a multibillion-dollar Healthcare IT business is prepared for impact from a wide range of risks, pandemics being one of them. Not surprisingly my past two weeks have been spent in discussion with people who make more in a year than I will in the next 3 decades. Guess how often faith has been mentioned in those planning meetings.

 

[Mike]

I like to be faithful and prepared and I appreciate this thread a lot.

 

[Jackalope]

From Friday in the New England Journal of medicine.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387


Good news showing it may not be as deadly depending on how it's defined.

Joe is not wrong...

And that is really the rub. It really depends on risk factors and underlying health conditions. While my personal risk of death as a healthy 38-year-old male is looking to be below .2% in confirmed cases, that is not the case for older people, or people with health issues where data is showing them to be north of 14%. We've always been told that children, the elderly, and those with health issues are most at risk for the seasonal flu, still, the combined mortality rate for the entire flu epidemic is only around .1% - .2% in confirmed cases. Whereas this is tracking on average around 1-2% of confirmed cases. It's tricky really because we have no idea how many cases will never be confirmed due to mild symptoms that never required medical intervention. The same argument is made for the flu each year also.

 

[Hedgelj]

Not to promote panic but to potentially provide insight on the severity.

I'm turning 40 this year so my historical perspective is limited compared to some.

When else have you seen multiple countries with quarantines?

China with their historic lack of care in human rights wasn't able to contain it, its just a matter of time and that time is probably about up.

They still are unsure if the actual method of transmission and many other details.... that will lead to ineffective protection and treatment which means being overboard on prevention isn't a bad plan.

Just some thoughts.

 

[Fletch]

Hmmm.... I have a cystoscopy scheduled for the end of March at a surgical center... Maybe I should postpone till end of April???

 

[Mike]

Look at the flu epidemic of 1918. Yikes.

 

[Geezer II]

Hmmm.... I have a cystoscopy scheduled for the end of March at a surgical center... Maybe I should postpone till end of April???

They will prolly tell you what up with that

 

[Jackalope]

I like to be faithful and prepared and I appreciate this thread a lot.

And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. I'm my professional world I deal with risk items, those risks can be Avoided, Reduced, Transferred, Accepted, Shared, or a combination thereof. This is called a risk mitigation strategy. Note "mitigated", as they can never be eliminated. Part of that also deals with continuity planning in the event that a risk is ever realized, this is where you mitigate the impact. In ones personal world faith can be placed in the continuity group as an impact mitigation factor once the risk has caused the impact. We can look at it as an insurance policy against losses, it's not going to do you a bit of good right now, but will be super valuable later if you have risk impact.