Sorry that I disappeared yesterday. I'm neck-deep professionally in Pandemic Response Planning. To share, here was the opening statement from my 3 letter level brief yesterday.
COVID-19 What we know.
Containment: State, Local, and National Governments have been unable to contain the virus. Community spread exists in numerous states with new states identified daily.
Transmission Rate: WHO's estimated Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5 (Seasonal Flu 1:3) ( A growth factor above 1 indicates spread, whereas a factor between 0 and 1 is a sign of decline)
Incubation Period: 2-14 Days.
Severity: 80.9% of infections are mild / 13.8% Severe / 4.7% Critical. / 2% +/- Fatality rate
Recovery: Mild cases: approximately 2 weeks / Severe or critical disease: 3 - 6 weeks / time from onset to the development of severe disease 1 week
SUMMARY: COVID-19 is as contagious if not twice as contagious as the seasonal flu. While the flu has a vaccine to slow transmission, COVID does not. A vaccine is not expected to be available for over a year. Roughly 81% of cases will require a 2 week recovery period, with 18.5% of cases requiring 3-6 week recovery period. 52% of Americans received a flu shot last year and an estimated 5-20% of the US population contracted the flu. Without a vaccine, it is reasonable to suspect that 10-40% of Americans will contract the COVID virus at the minimum transmission rate of R0 1.4.