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2019-nCoV (Coronavirus)

bowhunter1023

Owner/Operator
Staff member
49,371
288
Appalachia
Again, not saying I condone such behavior, merely pointing out this is a fundamental business principle at play, albeit shunned by all of us here.
 

Clay Showalter

Southern member northern landowner
6,772
145
Guilford County
Also wife went to Aldi today, they had limits on number of items you could buy, as to be expected people ignored the signs and then got pissed off at the register when they wouldn’t let them buy it.
 

Jamie

Senior Member
5,955
177
Ohio
I'm not getting on your case, Jesse. (didn't really seem to me like you were condoning this, btw.) I just wanted to know where you heard such a thing. I've never heard a business person I respect say "don't waste a crisis" with respect to anything that is an actual "crisis" like this illness may become. no person with one shred of morality would go near what these two jack-offs are doing. I'm not staking any claim to high moral ground, here. I'm still at the bottom of that hill.
 
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Geezer II

Bountiful Hunting Grounds Beyond.
5,971
101
portage county oh
I'm not getting on your case, Jesse. (didn't really seem to me like you were condoning this, btw.) I just wanted to know where you heard such a thing. I've never heard a business person I respect say "don't waste a crisis" with respect to anything that is an actual "crisis" like this illness may become. no person with one shred of morality would go near what these two jack-offs are doing. I'm not staking any claim to high moral ground, here. I'm still at the bottom of that hill.
There are trusted respected business men and women and the shysters most of us i believe have delt with both
 
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Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,067
274
Joe how is the timeline playing out for the spread of the virus in the USA compared to predictions? Just wondering, this coming Tuesday will be 8 weeks since the first confirmed case in the USA.

That would be easy to answer if we didn't have a massive lack of testing. Also, we have to look at the first confirmed case of community transmission in the US, not the first identified case as that was travel related. The first community transmission case which I believe was Feb 26th or 27th was only 18 days ago. Thats the indicator where lost containment and we know positively that it was spreading in the wild. As for testing the only inclination they have right now are severely ill people showing up at hospitals. We know from the data that people can be infected for 2-14 days before having symptoms, and 3-5 days before it progresses to the point they seek care. Add in another day or two for test results, data-wisewise we are 6-21 days before we see even very narrowly scoped numbers.

The reality is we have no reason to believe that what we've seen in Italy, Spain, soKoreaorea, and other countries will be any different here in America. We don't have some sort of supergene that makes us immune and the rest of the world doesn't.

What we do know is there is a geographically dispersed indication of untraceable large community spread. Meaning all over America people are coming down with COVID who have not traveled and don't know anyone who is sick. Many of the cases now can't even be traced to a common location or activity. Knowing that it's asinine for a person to take the position that because we don't have a plethora of positive test results means it's not a problem here, and people are overacting. What that means is we aren't testing at nearly the rate that we need to be and the virus is spreading unchecked.

There are really two ways to stop community transmission. Very draconian restrictions like we saw in China where everyone in a geographic area was put on lockdown. Or very aggressive early detection of case with extensive contact tracing to identify probable cases, and then quarantining just those individuals. Which is what Singapore has done. Here in the US we are not effectively doing either one of those tactics. Yes we have taken some steps like shutting down schools, large gatherings, etc but that will only slow the spread, not contain it. .
 
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Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,067
274
This is simply a no-win situation. If the virus fizzles out and leaves no major destruction in its path, all the naysayers will keep claiming fear mongering and that everything was exaggerated... even though the drastic measures would likely be what kept the virus at bay. If it pops off and the US follows the path of Italy, it’ll be total chaos and many people will die. It’s a shitty outcome either way, but I much prefer the former over the latter. All of these people claiming it’s “no big deal” or it’s “just a cold” will be singing a different tune if their loved ones are stuck in a nursing home, unable to visit anyone, and start dropping like flies like those poor people in Washington.

Yep... The Director of the Ohio Department Of health said a very similar thing during Thursdays press conference. She basically said if our actions succeed people will accuse us of being wrong and it turned out to be nothing. If we do nothing and it turns out to be bad, we will also be blamed. There is no winning. However we do not want to look back and say "we should have done" because by then it will be too late.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,067
274

I prefer the method used in Itally. Anyone who comes down with a fever, cough, or other symptoms of the new coronavirus strain named Covid-19 who do not put themselves under self-isolation risk being charged with causing injury and be jailed for six months to three years.

If a person ignores the signs and goes out and passes that bug to an elderly person or someone with a health condition and that person dies they're facing murder charges and 21 years in prison. If a person who has been informed that they were exposed to an infected person, or fails to warn people they are infected face the same penalty.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,067
274
From our very limited scope of testing so far here is the current "curve".

20200315_131905.jpg
20200315_131851.jpg
Screenshot_20200315-131830_Chrome.jpg
 
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Tipmoose

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
3,029
97
Grove City
Misleading death chart is misleading. Do not compare cumulative deaths every 2 days with new daily infections. Using the same axis and criteria the death rate would be flat.