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Lumber prices😳

Clay Showalter

Southern member northern landowner
3,596
103
Asheboro NC
My wife is the CFO for a lumber company and it has been a crazy year and a half. They ran 2 shifts working overtime for most of the year last year, could not keep up with demand. Lowe’s is a client they sell to and all this started with pandemic remodeling boom, Lowe’s and all the building supply companies have had record years last year, her company had a record year.

They had problems and still are finding lumber, they are buying from all over the world. Many timber companies shut down for a period of time. Personnel shortages caused by people being out with covid, people choosing to stay home when they get stimulus money, it all feeds the problem.

Now add the interest rates being low, new home construction booming, existing home shortage, and it makes for a perfect storm for supply and demand. I don’t who is price gouging, her company is making more money on volume, their margins are still about the same.

The historic winter mess in Texas is adding to problem in the building industry with companies that supply raw materials for paint and plastics and polymers trying to recover from the down time and damage.

Here is my question, where were all these people living before? When people sell a house for a great profit are they downsizing? How are they replacing what they are selling in a way that makes economic sense?

Where I live it is almost impossible to get a contractor to give a quote to build a new househey can’t, the prices of materials is too volatile. they will do cost plus, but the bank won’t do a loan on that.

I am so glad we started our house when we did, there is no way we could have built right now. Being a log cabin and everything being wood on the inside, it cost would not be cost effective.

Like others have said there is a huge housing bust coming. How are these people going to get out of these houses they paid way too much for?
What happens when the eviction moratoriums are done? Foreclosures will be coming.

we are blessed to be able to go in with my brother in law and buy the house and property next to us. The guy went off the deep end, left his wife, started dating a drug addict, go into trouble with the law, ended up in jail. They agreed to a price with us, as the mortgage is 3 months behind.

In our area we are seeing houses that will not appraise for the selling price and people are making up the difference out of pocket, that just insane to me.

I know a young couple that bought a house exactly a year ago for 235,000 decided to sell it and live with his dad until things settle down and they build on land they already own. Their house was on the market for less than 24 hours and sold for 297,000. After paying the realtor, they will still make 45,000, not a bad return for 1 year.

The trend that started here is something that I have never seen before, people are not listing their houses with a price. They set a date and say they will take offers, so now they don’t give you a starting point it is all up to the market.
 

giles

Village idiot and local whore
Supporting Member
32,743
190
In a bar
More scary times ahead. I've said the same crash is coming for the vehicle market. These prices can't continue.
 
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5Cent

Senior Member
Supporting Member
9,482
145
North Central Ohio
I dont believe there will be a housing crash anytime soon, on contrary, I believe it's finally catching up to where it should be with limited supply over the last decade. Lenders are more strict to qualify so unemployment or inflation (i.e. cost of living) I feel are the biggest risks.

Back on point, all good reasons listed for the increase in lumber prices. Strap in boys, it's across the board.....groceries, building materials, automobiles, grass seed. We have been fortunate enough to not have to deal with inflation like was experienced when we were kids, 8-12% interest. Channel or market doesn't matter, the global supply chain has been kinked and lean/JIT designs are showing their weaknesses. We can only hope that companies find a happy medium with carrying more on-hand inventory of components and finished goods to help level out the consumer demand. R&R is the main driver beyond supply chains, as stated above. THD, Lowes, Amazon.....blowing their wholesale counterparts out of the water volume wise.

We are adding a 3PL retail specific warehouse in Columbus, our 2017 DC addition in Kinston, NC is already maxed out and they are adding 90 new positions.
 
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Mike

Dignitary Member
Supporting Member
13,391
155
Wood Co.
The good news is housing inventories are at all time lows and you can charge a premium for your place. It's never been worth more money than it is today. Capitalize on it, downsize, hold steady, and chances are you'll be better off in the long run.
It's killing my home inspection business. The inventory is so bad here that you will sell for a premium but you'll be homeless. Many are even buying without an inspection. I've branched out to include predrywall inspections for new construction this last month. Thankfully this is still a side hustle or I'd be screwed.
 

giles

Village idiot and local whore
Supporting Member
32,743
190
In a bar
I can't disagree with an increase. I can be disappointed in how fast it has increased.

How is Trex decking material looking? Or concrete walls? I haven't done my research on other materials yet.
 

5Cent

Senior Member
Supporting Member
9,482
145
North Central Ohio
Per our builder with Schumacher - windows are months delayed, shingles weeks delayed,, electricians are being limited on number of spools, caulk is limited to 3-4 tubes so they have to bounce around from store to store. Foam/poly compounds were impacted with weather deal down in TX.

I booked a skid steer and harley rake 2 weeks ago for this weekend, still might not be available lol. My buddy owns the damn rental company company i know I'm not getting bumped without real cause.

I've watched a new Diyanni Home just north of us, approx 3K sq. ft., sit wide open with outside osb and roof installed, but no windows. Storms have the outside wrapping about 2/3's ripped off.
 

Big H

Senior Member
3,571
103
Medina
Domestic steel prices have gone up 6-15% since January. On May 1 we are expecting similar increases. Scrap prices, market shortages, and transportation are the root causes in the USA.

In the commercial roofing industry try more like 35% Ben, which includes screw and plates and extended lead times, which are getting longer by the day. Also, there are more price increases and shortages looming on the horizon. Raw materials for commercial roofing are being allocated and many suppliers are declaring "Force Majeure"

I have a good friend that owns a equipment sales/rental company, and he told me yesterday that he tried to order some new equipment trailers and was told that they were 9 months out as of now.

Jeff Bezos (Amazon) just bought a steel bar joist manufacturing plant which will limit other companies ability to secure joists to build new buildings and I am seeing projects pushed out to the end of the year already, due to GC's inability to get steel joists and decking.

We are being told that it is going to get much worse before it gets better.
 
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bowhunter1023

Administrator
Staff member
45,066
238
Appalachia

20210415_085801.jpg


I have a good relationship with the owners of the mill where this was sawn. The positive outlook is that these guys run a good business, but they were down for 8 weeks this time last year. Now, they're making hay while the sun shines. Sometimes ya gotta take the tinfoil off and enjoy life. This is the America I live in. 😎
 

Isaacorps

Member
3,656
103
Columbus
Same thing is happening with copper. 100%+ increase over the past few months. We are getting updated price lists from our supply houses 2-3 times per week. We are writing into all of our bids that the bid is only good until acceptance at which point it will be updated based on copper price.
We’re already seeing large projects being put on hold or not starting altogether due to cost of lumber. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a personal project that I could’ve done probably 30% cheaper 18 months ago. Nothing I can do but grin and bear it. If I can’t afford it, I won’t do it.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
33,873
212
a good friend that owns a equipment sales/rental company, and he told me yesterday that he tried to order some new equipment trailers and was told that they were 9 months out as of now.

No joke. I've been looking for a 6x10 enclosed in white and people want 4-6k for them new, and even the used ones people are selling they want 3k+ for. F that. I'm not paying basically double on a damn trailer.
 

huntn2

Super Moderator
Super Mod
5,952
115
Hudson, OH
I’m in Adam’s camp...we are going to see inflation that the majority of us have never seen in our lives.

Ocean and domestic freight contracts are coming in stupid high right now. Steel prices are rising weekly impacting all logistics infrastructure. I walked over 2.5M sq ft of distribution center space today looking at options.

The constant disruptions have been crippling. The force majeures from the gulf freeze in February have recked further havoc driving manufacturers to eat expedites from across the globe.

Classic bull-whip is about to unleash...
 
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giles

Village idiot and local whore
Supporting Member
32,743
190
In a bar
I’m in Adam’s camp...we are going to see inflation that the majority of us have never seen in our lives.

Ocean and domestic freight contracts are coming in stupid high right now. Steel prices are rising weekly impacting all logistics infrastructure. I walked over 2.5M sq ft of distribution center space today looking at options.

The constant disruptions have been crippling. The force majeures from the gulf freeze in February have recked further havoc driving manufacturers to eat expedites from across the globe.

Classic bull-whip is about to unleash...
If everything inflats, the money actually stays the same. Right?
 

Floki

Junior Member
878
42
Well, one thing I Have not seen is anyone say buy 10k worth treated lumber sell it in 6months..

Money in the bank/money spent .. Profits/margins.

I’m in the business .. I’ve saw some bat shit Karen posts on this topic.. I’ve seen a lot to be true...

Shits not good!

I hope by Gods will everyone in the trade has a great season. Trying to explain to a repeat customer or potential customer costs will make ya stutter.

Honest truths! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

I didn’t vote for this shit!

As goes prices go up.... On a side note.... Everything goes up.. Wood is talk now... Give it 6 months you will be talking about milk!