Interesting question CJD! I would think there would be multiple variables. One variable would be the freeze/thaw. IF you have a hard freeze that stays frozen all winter, my thinking is less movement versus a winter where we have freeze/thaw/freeze/thaw/freeze/thaw/etc. Other contributing factors might be with the soil density. Loamy soils, clay soils, sandy soils, etc would probably be different. When we do paver or retaining wall jobs, these are factors to consider. Which soil type is in the area is partially what dictates how you lay down your base. Just some things to think about. I certainly don't have an answer for you but I would believe these elements of the puzzle would factor into the equation.