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2019-nCoV (Coronavirus)

giles

Cull buck specialist
Supporting Member
I got an email over a month ago, that if my bags were not tied securely, whether in a can of set out separately they would not take them...
Cool. I have a dumpster but it hit me yesterday when I seen the guy running my road. That would be a hell of a way to disperse this.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
I’m concerned about the reopening of things. It seems way to many people think it’s good.

All part of the plan buddy. What we're going to see is a series of managed exposure cycles until we reach a level where staying open doesn't overwhelm medical services. If they were to come right out and say "We're finished with round one, we need volunteers for group two." Nobody would raise their hand and everyone would stay hunkered down. We need the illusion that things are better. They will reopen and with a few weeks to a month or so we'll see places start locking down again. If they opened today I don't think it would be but a few weeks before we're right back at home with everything closed again.
 

giles

Cull buck specialist
Supporting Member
All part of the plan buddy. What we're going to see is a series of managed exposure cycles until we reach a level where staying open doesn't overwhelm medical services. If they were to come right out and say "We're finished with round one, we need volunteers for group two." Nobody would raise their hand and everyone would stay hunkered down. We need the illusion that things are better. They will reopen and with a few weeks to a month or so we'll see places start locking down again. If they opened today I don't think it would be but a few weeks before we're right back at home with everything closed again.
The major worry I have is the people with the “fuckits”. Those entitled to be able to do whatever they want. How long before my 15 year old daughter starts sneaking out the window?
 
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Schu72

Well-Known Member
3,864
113
Streetsboro
Local update
Over the last week we have seen very modest increases in our Covid patients.(admitted inpatients) "We are currently in the upper 30's. Available testing kits have increased from 150 to around 1300. We went from testing less than 10/day to around 30/day. Cumulative + rate is at 26.5%. This week we did see a sharp increase in overall inpatient admissions. I'm hearing many patients are reluctant to come to the hospital for fear of getting exposed to Covid. A number of these patients had chest pain for more than 3 days and were delayed myocardial infarction presentations. This trend could prove to be very detrimental for heart failure patients or those high risk for stroke or MI.
 
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"J"

Git Off My Lawn
Supporting Member
58,849
288
North Carolina
The major worry I have is the people with the “fuckits”. Those entitled to be able to do whatever they want. How long before my 15 year old daughter starts sneaking out the window?
Make sure she’s on the second floor without a ladder....

This whole scenario will be going on for well over a year. They’ll be like groundhogs coming out for a little bit then heading back in the hole until it’s all clear agin.... Then repeat....
 
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Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
The major worry I have is the people with the “fuckits”. Those entitled to be able to do whatever they want. How long before my 15 year old daughter starts sneaking out the window?

No real way to sugar coat it... They'll get it eventually, but they will serve a purpose. They'll act as a barrier between an infected person and a person with no immunity. As more of them get it, and get over it, the barrier will grow bigger and bigger. My goal is to be in that last 20% because by then cells will be much easier to identify, trace and contain.

 

Blan37

Member
1,795
72
SW Ohio
No real way to sugar coat it... They'll get it eventually, but they will serve a purpose. They'll act as a barrier between an infected person and a person with no immunity. As more of them get it, and get over it, the barrier will grow bigger and bigger. My goal is to be in that last 20% because by then cells will be much easier to identify, trace and contain.


I'd like to see that same graphic but for herd immunity. I think vaccines are a ways off.
 
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Clay Showalter

Southern member northern landowner
6,794
155
Guilford County
I think it time to open things back up, if you don’t want to participate, stay home. I don’t see spikes in all of the essential workers still out and about, Lowe’s and Home Depot are so packed it is nuts, people at the grocery stores, people lined up at restaurants.

if you are at high risk, stay home, if you have loved ones at high risk, as I do, they need to stay home and the people that are around them need to take precautions.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
I'd like to see that same graphic but for herd immunity. I think vaccines are a ways off.

Same concept though. Natural or unnatural immunity. A virus spreads prolifically when zero immunity is present. As more and more are immune it can't spread as fast and once it goes below R1 infection rate it dies out.. Unless it changes.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
I think it time to open things back up, if you don’t want to participate, stay home. I don’t see spikes in all of the essential workers still out and about, Lowe’s and Home Depot are so packed it is nuts, people at the grocery stores, people lined up at restaurants.

if you are at high risk, stay home, if you have loved ones at high risk, as I do, they need to stay home and the people that are around them need to take precautions.

While I don't disagree, unfortunately, the choice to stay home isn't how American corporations work. They're already pushing for immunity against lawsuits for employee exposure resulting in injury and death. I fear what will happen is employers will demand that a person chooses between their livlihood and potentially their life, just to get them back in the office. I think companies should be made to follow very specific guidelines for social distancing, cleaning, PPE, workforce notification, and contact tracing, just as they would be required to mitigate any other OSHA defined workplace hazard.
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
Interesting.

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%
 
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"J"

Git Off My Lawn
Supporting Member
58,849
288
North Carolina
I think it time to open things back up, if you don’t want to participate, stay home. I don’t see spikes in all of the essential workers still out and about, Lowe’s and Home Depot are so packed it is nuts, people at the grocery stores, people lined up at restaurants.

if you are at high risk, stay home, if you have loved ones at high risk, as I do, they need to stay home and the people that are around them need to take precautions.
Ole cooper disagrees and extends the stay at home order too May 8th....
 

Blan37

Member
1,795
72
SW Ohio
Interesting.

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%

So about 8 times more deadly than the flu, at least in New York State? Still high, but better than 30x. The median age in NY State & NYC is 38.2 and 35.8 respectively; the younger population might explain some of it.

edit... I guess that also depends on what the average flu death rate is in those areas too.. IDK. These numbers and all the variables make my head spin.
 
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Fletch

Senior Member
Supporting Member
6,228
136
My friend had/has it.. Now his wife has it.. He said she is miserable and in alot of pain... Sitting on the toilet all day today with the usual fever... He just finished week two with it and feeling a little better...She on the other hand just started... Thank God so far they have had no breathing issues
..
 

Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
My friend had/has it.. Now his wife has it.. He said she is miserable and in alot of pain... Sitting on the toilet all day today with the usual fever... He just finished week two with it and feeling a little better...She on the other hand just started... Thank God so far they have had no breathing issues
..
Man hate to hear that. Happy that they haven't developed more serious symptoms though.
 

Fletch

Senior Member
Supporting Member
6,228
136
Man hate to hear that. Happy that they haven't developed more serious symptoms though.
Yeh... Like I said THANK GOD it hasn't gone into the lungs... They wouldn't test her since he was tested and definately had it... Another friend had it and was real bad in the hospital... He didn't need a respirator but liver and kidneys were starting to go down hill... Luckily he took a sudden turn for the better and is starting to improve... These three are under 55 years...
 
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Jackalope

Dignitary Member
Staff member
39,083
274
Yeh... Like I said THANK GOD it hasn't gone into the lungs... They wouldn't test her since he was tested and definately had it... Another friend had it and was real bad in the hospital... He didn't need a respirator but liver and kidneys were starting to go down hill... Luckily he took a sudden turn for the better and is starting to improve... These three are under 55 years...

Damn. Scary. Makes one wonder how off the mark the confirmed case numbers are. IMO there pretty worthless.
 
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