2019-nCoV (Coronavirus)
- Thread starter Jackalope
- Start date
If you look at the individual graphs of Rt, you'll see that most of the MSP (mainstream press) accounts about how ceasing lockdowns would result in greater spread were wrong. The Rt didn't change measurably in Georgia, Florida, West Virginia, South Carolina. In fact, there appears to be no correlation between Rt and the presence of sheltering orders.
On April 23rd, Max Fisher (reporter for NY Times) indicated that the observed R0 for Coronavirus was somewhere between 2.0 and 2.5. But nowhere in the Rt graphs did I see anywhere near that number. The largest number I saw was 1.3. Other sites have less optimistic calculated values for R0 (one calls out the average US R0 at 1.1 now, which seems wrong, given the data from Rt dot live.).
On April 23rd, Max Fisher (reporter for NY Times) indicated that the observed R0 for Coronavirus was somewhere between 2.0 and 2.5. But nowhere in the Rt graphs did I see anywhere near that number. The largest number I saw was 1.3. Other sites have less optimistic calculated values for R0 (one calls out the average US R0 at 1.1 now, which seems wrong, given the data from Rt dot live.).
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I think that is why he posted it. @brock ratcliff you had me laughing my butt off with that quick reply. Literally laughing until my wife and kids were annoyed.
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I was shooting for 6’2”. You must be about 6’.
Ohiosam
*Supporting Member*
interesting....
1 asymptomatic patient with 455 known contacts, none of which caught the disease
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/324...X9kcMHQQzH932ZMLoBG0e5Eqn69_OkYFvYvDxta3oJ1yA
1 asymptomatic patient with 455 known contacts, none of which caught the disease
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/324...X9kcMHQQzH932ZMLoBG0e5Eqn69_OkYFvYvDxta3oJ1yA
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So here's some irony for ya...
Looks like we have some kind of virus here at my place. Wife's been running a low grade temp for days now, one of our boys had muscle pain in the middle of the night and I've had a sore throat for the past 2 (no temp). Mine could be allergies, his could just be nothing but she's definitely caught something somehow even with all our precautions. I don't think it's covid, but it does illustrate that in spite of all we've done, something got through.
Looks like we have some kind of virus here at my place. Wife's been running a low grade temp for days now, one of our boys had muscle pain in the middle of the night and I've had a sore throat for the past 2 (no temp). Mine could be allergies, his could just be nothing but she's definitely caught something somehow even with all our precautions. I don't think it's covid, but it does illustrate that in spite of all we've done, something got through.
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Big_Holla
Senior Member
My wife suffers from severe allergies and every few days the alarm bells go off with her coughing, blowing her nose, etc.. Hopefully it's the same in your case and just a reminder there are other things out there (other than covid) that can mess up your day and mess with your mind.
Salem Ohio, the cases are doubling every 11 days. According too The NY Times. The 5th highest cases in the country.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wk...t-what-it-seems-health-commissioner-says/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wk...t-what-it-seems-health-commissioner-says/amp/
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Sgt Fury
Sgt. Spellchecker
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I'd be interested to know if the availability of tests also increased over the same period. If we look at Ohio as a whole testing has increased dramatically yet detected cases haven't increased at the same rate.
Columbiana County health commissioner Wes Vins doesn’t believe it’s a fair or accurate representation of what’s happening in the county or Salem.
“The main reason is that the main population that caused the increase is, essentially, already isolated under quarantine,” he said.
Vins thinks the numbers are skewed because they’re coming from the federal prison at Elkton, 25 minutes away. There’s been an increase in testing as part of its surveillance to get a better understanding of COVID-19 in the prison population.
“We do know they’re not transporting those prisoners outside of the prison, so that tells me the severity of the illnesses are able to be handled by internal staff there at the federal prison,” he said.
“The main reason is that the main population that caused the increase is, essentially, already isolated under quarantine,” he said.
Vins thinks the numbers are skewed because they’re coming from the federal prison at Elkton, 25 minutes away. There’s been an increase in testing as part of its surveillance to get a better understanding of COVID-19 in the prison population.
“We do know they’re not transporting those prisoners outside of the prison, so that tells me the severity of the illnesses are able to be handled by internal staff there at the federal prison,” he said.
This isn't the first time the NYTimes drew the incorrect conclusion from data. It's assessment of GA's progress contained the usual 'Yankee Bias' (I'm a former NYer who lived in SC for 11 years, many of us act like asses). A rebuttal was never published in their paper, but was circulated widely online. Even the Editor in Chief at 'the Economist' made an apparently bogus statement about death rates across countries. I'm going to send an email later today, and see what happens.
Life is difficult enough, without having nonsense or errors published as truth.
Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk
Life is difficult enough, without having nonsense or errors published as truth.
Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk
I just found it ironic that The NY Times printing this about my former place of residence. Must’ve be a slow news day for them. I agree the Elkton federal prison skews the numbers. When I would walk the dog around town they always had a prison bus parked near the ER of the hospital with a few armed guards.