2025 EHD?

[at1010]

EHD + Harvest Pressure = Recovery Trouble

I’ve been running numbers on Ohio deer densities, using 20–25 deer per square mile and a 36-square-mile township as the baseline. Here’s what happens when disease and harvest overlap:

• 30% EHD kill + 27% harvest (statewide average): Herd does not recover. Net recruitment (~15–20% in many areas) cannot keep pace with a 27% annual harvest.
• 40% EHD kill + 27% harvest: Same outcome. Continued decline.
• 50% EHD kill + 27% harvest: Decline is sharper. Even at a strong 25% net recruitment, you are still at –2% per year.

Recovery time: If total harvest is reduced so that net recruitment exceeds harvest, recovery to pre-EHD levels typically takes 5–10 years, depending on the initial die-off and the actual net recruitment achieved. At the current statewide harvest level (~27%), recovery after a 30–50% die-off is not possible.

How much to cut the harvest?
Use this rule of thumb: harvest must be below net recruitment.

• If we assume an average 15% net recruitment, the total harvest needs to be ≤12% to allow growth at a reasonable pace.
• From ~27% down to ~12% is about a 55% reduction in total harvest. That is where the “cut by ~55%” figure comes from.

It is fair to expect a bump in recruitment for one to two years after a die-off, due to improved per-capita resources. But if harvest remains above net recruitment, the herd will still struggle to rebound.

Please poke holes where needed. I have spent way too much time on this and hope it helps someone’s thinking.

 

[Wiley E Coyote]

I just ran into the GW in Lebanon. He said no cases confirmed yet in Warren county so far. Started picking is brain about EHD. He told me it's always been around we just didn't know about it without social media. I found that interesting! He also informed me the deer found dead in Athens county by MRex in July wouldn't have been EHD that early. Interesting! This gets better. Right now there are more deer in Ohio then have ever been. They know this to be true by the number of bucks killed each year. The state of Ohio measures deer density by the number of antlered deer killed each fall. I asked how they could compare that to the days of no baiting and modern equipment. He said there has always been baiting it just wasn't legal but people were doing it.

 

[Boarhead]

Buddy sent me this. I agree with Dr Kroll

 

[giles]

Yall gonna make me drink.

 

[GoetzTalon]

Join in and then drill the shit out of them about ehd. Bet there’s a technical difficulty real quick and they go offline.

 

["J"]

Yall gonna make me drink.

Betcha you won’t! By the way I’m probably ahead of you by a few!

 

[Smawgunner2]

I just ran into the GW in Lebanon. He said no cases confirmed yet in Warren county so far. Started picking is brain about EHD. He told me it's always been around we just didn't know about it without social media. I found that interesting! He also informed me the deer found dead in Athens county by MRex in July wouldn't have been EHD that early. Interesting! This gets better. Right now there are more deer in Ohio then have ever been. They know this to be true by the number of bucks killed each year. The state of Ohio measures deer density by the number of antlered deer killed each fall. I asked how they could compare that to the days of no baiting and modern equipment. He said there has always been baiting it just wasn't legal but people were doing it.

I call BS on not EHD in July. I started this thread and know what I saw. That deer stood in that creek with her nose 4 inches from the water for hours. You couldn’t spook her. The next day she died where she stood. Not sure any other cause of death would give you those symptoms. I would say if an animal knows it’s dying or injured, they also know their easy prey and have a tendency to hide. Dunno

 

[hickslawns]

@at1010 not to poke a hole, but maybe something not factored into your equation: people quit hunting. People don't hunt as hard. Locally I had people saying "I'm not hunting because there simply aren't any deer around." While this isn't a good thing, I think you'll see a decline in actual hunters (or reduced hours/effort by those hunting) this year and maybe a year or two following. I post this as a positive because it "should" help in the rebound. Now the guys getting hit back to back or 2 of 3 years? I don't know. Less deer to die if there are less alive? Not sure how that works out on paper.

 

[Wiley E Coyote]

I'm still hunting to sit in the woods another fall of nothing else and as of right now I'm still hopeful my areas won't get hit to hard. September will tell the story