2025 EHD?

[at1010]

EHD + Harvest Pressure = Recovery Trouble

I’ve been running numbers on Ohio deer densities, using 20–25 deer per square mile and a 36-square-mile township as the baseline. Here’s what happens when disease and harvest overlap:

• 30% EHD kill + 27% harvest (statewide average): Herd does not recover. Net recruitment (~15–20% in many areas) cannot keep pace with a 27% annual harvest.
• 40% EHD kill + 27% harvest: Same outcome. Continued decline.
• 50% EHD kill + 27% harvest: Decline is sharper. Even at a strong 25% net recruitment, you are still at –2% per year.

Recovery time: If total harvest is reduced so that net recruitment exceeds harvest, recovery to pre-EHD levels typically takes 5–10 years, depending on the initial die-off and the actual net recruitment achieved. At the current statewide harvest level (~27%), recovery after a 30–50% die-off is not possible.

How much to cut the harvest?
Use this rule of thumb: harvest must be below net recruitment.

• If we assume an average 15% net recruitment, the total harvest needs to be ≤12% to allow growth at a reasonable pace.
• From ~27% down to ~12% is about a 55% reduction in total harvest. That is where the “cut by ~55%” figure comes from.

It is fair to expect a bump in recruitment for one to two years after a die-off, due to improved per-capita resources. But if harvest remains above net recruitment, the herd will still struggle to rebound.

Please poke holes where needed. I have spent way too much time on this and hope it helps someone’s thinking.

 

[Wiley E Coyote]

I just ran into the GW in Lebanon. He said no cases confirmed yet in Warren county so far. Started picking is brain about EHD. He told me it's always been around we just didn't know about it without social media. I found that interesting! He also informed me the deer found dead in Athens county by MRex in July wouldn't have been EHD that early. Interesting! This gets better. Right now there are more deer in Ohio then have ever been. They know this to be true by the number of bucks killed each year. The state of Ohio measures deer density by the number of antlered deer killed each fall. I asked how they could compare that to the days of no baiting and modern equipment. He said there has always been baiting it just wasn't legal but people were doing it.

 

[Boarhead]

Buddy sent me this. I agree with Dr Kroll

 

[giles]

Yall gonna make me drink.

 

[GoetzTalon]

Join in and then drill the shit out of them about ehd. Bet there’s a technical difficulty real quick and they go offline.

 

["J"]

Yall gonna make me drink.

Betcha you won’t! By the way I’m probably ahead of you by a few!

 

[Smawgunner2]

I just ran into the GW in Lebanon. He said no cases confirmed yet in Warren county so far. Started picking is brain about EHD. He told me it's always been around we just didn't know about it without social media. I found that interesting! He also informed me the deer found dead in Athens county by MRex in July wouldn't have been EHD that early. Interesting! This gets better. Right now there are more deer in Ohio then have ever been. They know this to be true by the number of bucks killed each year. The state of Ohio measures deer density by the number of antlered deer killed each fall. I asked how they could compare that to the days of no baiting and modern equipment. He said there has always been baiting it just wasn't legal but people were doing it.

I call BS on not EHD in July. I started this thread and know what I saw. That deer stood in that creek with her nose 4 inches from the water for hours. You couldn’t spook her. The next day she died where she stood. Not sure any other cause of death would give you those symptoms. I would say if an animal knows it’s dying or injured, they also know their easy prey and have a tendency to hide. Dunno

 

[hickslawns]

@at1010 not to poke a hole, but maybe something not factored into your equation: people quit hunting. People don't hunt as hard. Locally I had people saying "I'm not hunting because there simply aren't any deer around." While this isn't a good thing, I think you'll see a decline in actual hunters (or reduced hours/effort by those hunting) this year and maybe a year or two following. I post this as a positive because it "should" help in the rebound. Now the guys getting hit back to back or 2 of 3 years? I don't know. Less deer to die if there are less alive? Not sure how that works out on paper.

 

[Wiley E Coyote]

I'm still hunting to sit in the woods another fall of nothing else and as of right now I'm still hopeful my areas won't get hit to hard. September will tell the story

 

[Boarhead]

I just ran into the GW in Lebanon. He said no cases confirmed yet in Warren county so far. Started picking is brain about EHD. He told me it's always been around we just didn't know about it without social media. I found that interesting! He also informed me the deer found dead in Athens county by MRex in July wouldn't have been EHD that early. Interesting! This gets better. Right now there are more deer in Ohio then have ever been. They know this to be true by the number of bucks killed each year. The state of Ohio measures deer density by the number of antlered deer killed each fall. I asked how they could compare that to the days of no baiting and modern equipment. He said there has always been baiting it just wasn't legal but people were doing it.

My buddy got hit hard last year and they started finding dead deer in June. GW is full of shit. Coyotes wouldn't even touch them.

 

[Boarhead]

So what happens if they come out and test a dead deer and find cwd ..then we are really fucked.i quit reporting them last year cause they didnt change anything when we got hammrred in 22. I found 28 dead deer myself and with all the farms around us we found 63. Could smell many more we didnt see.

 

[at1010]

@at1010 not to poke a hole, but maybe something not factored into your equation: people quit hunting. People don't hunt as hard. Locally I had people saying "I'm not hunting because there simply aren't any deer around." While this isn't a good thing, I think you'll see a decline in actual hunters (or reduced hours/effort by those hunting) this year and maybe a year or two following. I post this as a positive because it "should" help in the rebound. Now the guys getting hit back to back or 2 of 3 years? I don't know. Less deer to die if there are less alive? Not sure how that works out on paper.

I played those numbers as well. I agree without you!

I felt the only way to mathematically stay consistent is the removal of emotional response. Maybe that was wrong and I could go back to this and calculate a coefficient of change from the mean relative to the avg. emotional response - however I think it just gets bit messy.

 

[hickslawns]

Be hard to quantify how many people will fall into this category. I just know some will throw their hands up. Others may hunt but only buck hunt. It would be a guess as to how many sit it out.

 

[cspot]

I have suffered thru some bad EHD outbreaks in PA. It takes about 6+7 years to fully recover. The downside is we seem to get it about every 6 years. Kinda glad we sold our camp in Ohio this year as it is in the outbreak zone. Also PA is allowing Sunday hunting so the need for Ohio isn't as great..

Will also say that people will still hunt but most seem to regulate themselves pretty good on shooting does, so that does help. Also you can't kill what is already dead.

 

[brock ratcliff]

I just ran into the GW in Lebanon. He said no cases confirmed yet in Warren county so far. Started picking is brain about EHD. He told me it's always been around we just didn't know about it without social media. I found that interesting! He also informed me the deer found dead in Athens county by MRex in July wouldn't have been EHD that early. Interesting! This gets better. Right now there are more deer in Ohio then have ever been. They know this to be true by the number of bucks killed each year. The state of Ohio measures deer density by the number of antlered deer killed each fall. I asked how they could compare that to the days of no baiting and modern equipment. He said there has always been baiting it just wasn't legal but people were doing it.

Mrex asked me to pass along the deer found July 4th were actually tested and confirmed.

 

[md1]

Does anyone know what the estimated harvest percentage is yearly? Either state wide or by any county? Goggle said, Athens reported 3663 deer last season. What percentage do biologists feel that represents of Athens population? Or what percentage of the herd do hunters take out every season?

 

[giles]

Does anyone know what the estimated harvest percentage is yearly? Either state wide or by any county? Goggle said, Athens reported 3663 deer last season. What percentage do biologists feel that represents of Athens population? Or what percentage of the herd do hunters take out every season?

The system is flawed as they base it off of buck harvest. So I dont think anyone could give much more than a guess.

 

[brock ratcliff]

The system is flawed as they base it off of buck harvest. So I dont think anyone could give much more than a guess.

It is.
Mrex is not a biologist. He was not speaking on behalf of anyone at the DoW, just a guy that based the numbers from previous year’s harvest and his own opinion. He told me just this morning if Athens county had 13-14k resident deer, he believes 10k of them are now laying dead due to this outbreak. There is absolutely no way to prove him correct or wrong, but the impact this outbreak has had is evident by the magnitude of his estimation. And any of you that know him will agree he is not a sky is falling kind of guy, but he believes they are mostly dead.

 

[giles]

It is.
Mrex is not a biologist. He was not speaking on behalf of anyone at the DoW, just a guy that based the numbers from previous year’s harvest and his own opinion. He told me just this morning if Athens county had 13-14k resident deer, he believes 10k of them are now laying dead due to this outbreak. There is absolutely no way to prove him correct or wrong, but the impact this outbreak has had is evident by the magnitude of his estimation. And any of you that know him will agree he is not a sky is falling kind of guy, but he believes they are mostly dead.

Not one person likes to poke him more than I do. That said, his concern has me concerned. I believe him and trust his opinion on this subject.