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2019-nCoV (Coronavirus)

Jackalope

Jackalope

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Dustinb80 said:
But he can't remember the diaper/kids bag
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Not my fault she hid it in a closet to keep the kids out of it. How the hell am I supposed to remember to load that. 😅.
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Hedgelj

Hedgelj

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Mohicanish
Jackalope said:
Some interesting data going on in other countries where it just sort of dropped off and even here in the US. From my early reading, a virus tends to be pretty crappy at replicating itself. Most of the DNA strands it replicates by inserting itself in the host DNA turn out to be worthless. It's seriously just throwing numbers at the wall and hoping enough of them stick. Each person that gets infected the virus changes a little. The vast majority of time it changes and becomes weaker. The human immune system messes with it and it just becomes crappier and crappier the further down the line it goes. Some viruses like the Flu are good at adapting, but most aren't. After the 5th or 10th or 15th person in an infection chain it may be so crappy that it just can't effectively replicate and be as contagious. So patient 0 may be super effective at transmission, patient 15 might be barely contagious. My theory is through quarantine we limited the lateral spread of direct early infection (1st gen hosts) and forced vertical infections. That may be why we're seeing infections drop despite reopening. Let's say Dad got sick and the family immediately isolated, then Mom, then Sister, then Brother, the virus was 2-4 people down the host infection line before uncle bobby got it later after everyone in the house had it. That means uncle bobby was host 2 of 4 and his family would be hosts 3-6 and so on. This is a very different infection pattern than what we saw early on where there was a broad lateral transmission among first-generation hosts. The R value here in ohio has now dropped below 1 according to state data. So that means that the virus will not be able to realistically sustain a rate of infection and will burn out. We'll see if it resurges in the fall, but for now all signs point to a virus that is burning out.
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Where are you getting your data from to support your theory?
 
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Cogz

Cogz
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TX
hickslawns said:
Makes sense. Freaking Joe. He is Jack of all trades. I've heard he can protect his home, kill turkeys, mitigate risk at high levels, and even be a coon dog handler. Now if we could just get him to cheer for the Buckeyes. Dang. 😁
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I’m newer here and have been impressed with Joe, but I was unaware of his disability but I’m super confident that he can overcome it. Please tell me that he is not a Michigan fan. Even if it isn't true just tell me that. Then I’ll have hope.
 
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Jackalope

Jackalope

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Cogz said:
I’m newer here and have been impressed with Joe, but I was unaware of his disability but I’m super confident that he can overcome it. Please tell me that he is not a Michigan fan. Even if it isn't true just tell me that. Then I’ll have hope.
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Roll Damn Tide!!
 
O

Outside

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A casual review indicates the R0 value of most locations in the US is below 1. On average between 0.94 and 0.88.

Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk
 
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Blan37

Blan37

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Outside said:
A casual review indicates the R0 value of most locations in the US is below 1. On average between 0.94 and 0.88.

Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The graph below isn't R0, but it's similar if I'm understanding it correctly.

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading

https://rt.live/

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