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Jackalope

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Looking like Englewood, north port is going to get the dirty side of the storm. Depends on which bay it tries to go up Tampa or Cape Coral. The European and US models have tightened and now predict landfall within about 30 miles of each other. Unfortunately it doesn't look like this cold front will be able to deteriorate the storm much before landfall. Looking like a cat 3. Time to go, especially for those close to water or within a few miles of the coast.
 

Stressless

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Keene, OH
This mornings forecast will spook the West Coast of FL herd thats been complacent for decades. They should have left last night maybe alright thru 9-10 EDT then gridlock is gonna happen....

I expect they'll open both sides of I75 to the North by 1500 today.

Conversely, the SM wannabes are gonna stay. I'm hopeful Darwin swings in with Ian to thin that particular herd.

20220927_071043.png
 
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Jackalope

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This mornings forecast will spook the West Coast of FL herd thats been complacent for decades. They should have left last night maybe alright thru 9-10 EDT then gridlock is gonna happen....

I expect they'll open both sides of I75 to the North by 1500 today.

Conversely, the SM wannabes are gonna stay. I'm hopeful Darwin swings in with Ian to thin that particular herd.

View attachment 162395

I'd head East on 60 to Vero Beach then south to boca / Miami area. Probably less traffic getting there and back. Everyone and their brother will be heading North.
 

Jackalope

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Shit.. Sea surface temps between Cuba and Florida are conducive to rapid intensification. It's a medium cat 3 at the moment. I'm guessing a strong cat 4 at landfall around Englewood. It keeps tracking more south and it looks like cape coral to golden gate is going to get hit hard. I hope some of the predictions hold true and there is deterioration before landfall.


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Jackalope

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We have a close family friend with a new $1+MM home on Anna Maria. I'm going to guess he's a bit nervous at the moment!

That's a tiny spit of land. The Tampa area hasn't had a major hurricane in over 100 years; as such many of the houses in those places are old construction and nowhere near modern hurricane code. Even still not much survives a strong cat 3 on a small island. Most of the houses are slabs sitting on the ground. The biggest thing they have going for them is being on the north side of the storm so it won't push as much surge ashore. Even still it's showing 1+ feet above ground level. Add wave action on top of that which is what really hammers homes. The other thing they have going for them is it seems like everyone's house is surrounded by vegitation, palms etc. It sounds silly but that helps break up the wind for a while and somewhat shields the houses.

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Jackalope

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Man. So hard to tell. NOAA is still predicting a cat 4 at landfall. The European model (Which has been more accurate this storm) is showing it deteriorating to a Cat 2 before landfall. It looks like it is having some instability around the eye. Which is a good thing, just too early to tell how long it'll take to recover eye stability and reform it's eye, if it does in time. Interaction with land on it's outer bands will have some impact on that. When they reform they often bigger and badder than before. It's been doing quite a bit of wobbling which is good also so it may not

This is a NOAA radar, you can see how it spun out a bunch of rain which got sucked up and collapsed the eye wall. Hopefully this is the beginning of it's destabilization and it eats itself to a cat 2. Know more around 1am

 
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hickslawns

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Are there a bunch of "meteorologist" on FB down there? Every time it might snow 1/2" and one of the 100 models shows it "could" get windy and drop 8" there are Facebook "weather pages" calling for disaster. It gets annoying. I'm guessing similar happens down there with Hurricanes?
 
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Jackalope

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Are there a bunch of "meteorologist" on FB down there? Every time it might snow 1/2" and one of the 100 models shows it "could" get windy and drop 8" there are Facebook "weather pages" calling for disaster. It gets annoying. I'm guessing similar happens down there with Hurricanes?

Weather people, government heads etc will always error on the side of caution, if there is even a chance of it happening they will say it will happen and promote preparedness. It's a liability thing. Imagine if they brushed it off and said, yeah this one model looks bad, but the others don't so we'll go with them, it won't be that bad. Then it gets really bad. People will blame them for not notifying them and say they downplayed it when the model clearly showed it could get bad. :ROFLMAO: The downside to this is you can only do that so many times before you get the reputation of the boy who cried wolf and people stop listening. "They always say it's going to be bad and we never get anything" in essence they kill their own credibility trying to do the "right" thing. The dangerous thing is when it matters people won't believe them. I look at weather data because screw those talking heads. With that said if I lived in Tampa I would have been out last night.
 

Stressless

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Keene, OH
Gonna be a lot of "used" cars and trucks for sale in a couple weeks.

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That's say 60 miles of avg 8' surge and 15 miles of 10'+

10'+ goes a long way down there on that flat part of the FL sandbar.

Figure easy 500,000 flooded residential homes. That's probably low.

- @hickslawns FB and others, looks like both Joe and I like looking at the data and going from there. But the ones that get my ire are the SM wannabes that come down and exploit the drama and/or hamper the first responders.
 

Jackalope

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Just got a text from my buddy in North Port, windy and rainy, everything is ok so far.

Your buddy is unfortunately directly in the path of a monster storm. Looks like it's not going to deteriorate and will come ashore as a strong cat 4 maybe cat 5. Wind speed predictions are 155mph sustained with 190mph gusts. He needs to get in the strongest interior room of the house and make sure to take something to cut out with, an axe, chainsaw etc.

The devastation is going to be massive. Ian will go in the history books with the likes of Michael, Katrina, & Camille,
 
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