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Covid vaccinations

If you go and look on the net for data on how long the vaccine provides covid protection you'll find a whole lot of "we're not sure" and "It's too early to tell" despite recipients going back over 120 days now. Sure doesn't seem like anyone is in much of a hurry to look at the durability of vaccine immunity. I did come across this a moment ago on a news site. Troubling to say the least. The graphic is showing a sharp decline in the vaccine's ability to prevent hospital admissions after 35 days. The study was conducted as a joint effort of 5 universities and Scotland public health, go figure. I wonder where the CDC is on this?

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Astra has not been approved for use in USA - some ?'s about use in people over 65 - approval in USA has not been requested yet - some other countries are using it
 

at1010

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My dad had his 2nd round this past Thursday, met up at Bob Evans yesterday and he was doing well. You could almost see the relief on his face.

My wife got her 1st round yesterday, her arm is pretty sore this AM.

Happy to hear your dad is doing well. My wife's grandparents got dose two, they were a little weak but seemed to be good by end of the day. We will call them today to check in on them.
 

Jackalope

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Astra has not been approved for use in USA - some ?'s about use in people over 65 - approval in USA has not been requested yet - some other countries are using it

My concern was the Pfizer vaccine showing that on day 34 it was 85% effective at preventing covid hospitalization, but 7 days later on day 41 & 42 that dropped to 68-64%. It looks like it's ability to act as a therapeutic and prevent people.from getting really sick starts to deteriorate pretty rapidly. I'll have to go find the full study today.
 

Jackalope

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My dad had his 2nd round this past Thursday, met up at Bob Evans yesterday and he was doing well. You could almost see the relief on his face.

My wife got her 1st round yesterday, her arm is pretty sore this AM.

That's awesome. My patents are in their mid 60s and got both of their 2nd doses last week also. Dad only did it because Mom is freaked out, and rightfully so as she has a history of respiratory issues, asthma, bronchitis, etc.
 

at1010

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That's awesome. My patents are in their mid 60s and got both of their 2nd doses last week also. Dad only did it because Mom is freaked out, and rightfully so as she has a history of respiratory issues, asthma, bronchitis, etc.

My mom has asthma as well and is in her 60s but they haven't been called yet here in Ohio. Dad is older and also hasn't been called yet, I hope they can get it soon for that reason. Dad - doesn't want to get it (I don't think, haha) but I don't think he has much of a choice in the situation, lol!
 
My concern was the Pfizer vaccine showing that on day 34 it was 85% effective at preventing covid hospitalization, but 7 days later on day 41 & 42 that dropped to 68-64%. It looks like it's ability to act as a therapeutic and prevent people.from getting really sick starts to deteriorate pretty rapidly. I'll have to go find the full study today.
Yes, now reports that Astra not very affect against African covid variants. The vaccine development will be a state of flux like the flu shots. If your go n for the vaccine you just have to take your best shot at that point in time
 

Jackalope

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Yes, now reports that Astra not very effect against African covid variants. The vaccine development will be a state of flux like the flu shots. If your go n for the vaccine you just have to take your best shot at that point in time

I'll have to find the study but I don't see anything about viral variants. It's looking at the durability of immunity and how well the two vaccines perform at preventing an infection that requires hospitalization over time.

I find it concerning that the vaccine has been out for quite a while now and we still don't have much public data around vaccinated individuals and hospitalizations. Especially considering the companies and the feds have that data.

Boosters are more than likely going to be required. The question becomes is that a yearly booster or every two months booster.
 
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Fletch

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Both me and the wife got the Moderna version yesterday at CVS... Neither of us had any side effects.. No sore arm nothing... Now here's the strange part... Been trying to get an appt. for weeks, everywhere is totally booked, including CVS in town we live in... TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE... So Fri. night our son calls and asks if we want to go Sat. for vaccine?? I ask where at?? He says CVS in our town.. I'm like I just 5 minutes earlier checked their web site and it was TOTALLY BOOKED... So... His wife went on CVS web site and found a CVS in another state that had openings... I believe it was a CVS in Alabama...She filled out the app and when it asked location you wanted the shot,,, She replied Vernon N.J... It came up with 4 appts. available...
 

Stressless

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Just poking around this topic after a couple coffee's whilst listening to a new video Jeff Sturgis (WHS) dropped this AM.

Folks are "deliberately" misleading the 30+ day results - lets look at Ohio cumulative total as of today.
vax1.JPG

Note that these are the "Completed" vax's both the Pfizer and Moderna series. As of the end of Jan'21 only about 100K had both, so OF COURSE the data on efficacy past those dates is squishy - there isn't enough data.

You need to understand the medical term "efficacy" as it applies to these vax's. This video does a commendable job blending the number crunching statistics required with the mRNA technology used in both vax's in lay terms. At 08:00 in the video is great quote. "Not till after the first 3,000,000 doses are out there do [the Docs] breath a sigh of relief."

Both Vax's are in the ~95% efficacy against the Covid-19 virus.


The US has 23,000,000 now completed Vax's so the duration of the current vax efficacy is exactly what all the 100 pound brains are looking at.
vax2.JPG

Be Well,
Stressless
 

Jackalope

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I found the study data . Light Reading here.

Basically they looked at the national health data of a shitload of people who had received the first dose of the vaccine and compared them to people who had not. They age adjusted and risk adjusted the groups to compare apples to apples. What they found was the vaccine was awesome at preventing hospitalizations. Which was the intent of their study. Something they didn't talk about in the study, that most considered troubling, is how quickly that prevention appears to fall off. Undoubtedly a 2nd shot at 30 days would act to boost that, but how quickly does that also fall off. The data suggests that peak protection from one vaccine is around the 30 day mark at 84%, at 42 days it's 58% effective. It's concerning because from day 34 to 41 (7 days) it drops 26%.


1614637866249.png
 
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Stressless

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Keene, OH
I found the study data . Light Reading here.

Basically they looked at the national health data of a shitload of people who had received the first dose of the vaccine and compared them to people who had not. They age adjusted and risk adjusted the groups to compare apples to apples. What they found was the vaccine was awesome at preventing hospitalizations. Which was the intent of their study. Something they didn't talk about in the study, that most considered troubling, is how quickly that prevention appears to fall off. Undoubtedly a 2nd shot at 30 days would act to boost that, but how quickly does that also fall off. The data suggests that peak protection from one vaccine is around the 30 day mark at 84%, at 42 days it's 58% effective. It's concerning because from day 34 to 41 (7 days) it drops 26%.


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Yepper! ... current vax efficacy is exactly what all the 100 pound brains are looking at.
 

Jackalope

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Yepper! ... current vax efficacy is exactly what all the 100 pound brains are looking at.

Efficacy is important. So is durability. Omeprazole is very efficient at controlling acid reflux, but it's not very durable and you have to take it every day. If two injections give 95% efficacy at 30 days that's awesome, half the battle is won. But if it drops to 50% at 60 days, and 25% at 90 days then the durability will pose a problem. That means people will need a booster once a month or so to maintain the efficacy. Better than noting and going to save a shitload of lives, absolutely. But if durability is only short-term it starts to become an unsustainable long-term solution.
 

hickslawns

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Mom got her second shot a week ago. Don't remember which one she got. Wasn't concerned about the first. It was the second shot that had me nervous. Fatigue. Sore arm. Low grade fever easily controlled by aspirin. I'll take it. Pretty sad when you fear the vaccine your 72 year old mother is getting more than her getting the freaking virus.
 

Stressless

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Vaccine efficacy - % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to
an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions

I think we're saying the same thing big daddy.

Efficacy is just as you described but now with millions in the sample size, and just beginning the alloted time since the second dose, they'll get on to how it is projected to stabilize disease resistance over time in the population. Which I think is what we both are indicating.

I am curious as to the duration of efficacy across the various vax's and varient strains of this virus, J&J's single shot vax is almost out, different science.

One the rules I live by:
"First contact reports are almost always wrong"
 

Jackalope

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Vaccine efficacy - % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to
an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions

I think we're saying the same thing big daddy.

Efficacy is just as you described but now with millions in the sample size, and just beginning the alloted time since the second dose, they'll get on to how it is projected to stabilize disease resistance over time in the population. Which I think is what we both are indicating.

I am curious as to the duration of efficacy across the various vax's and varient strains of this virus, J&J's single shot vax is almost out, different science.

One the rules I live by:
"First contact reports are almost always wrong"

We are pretty much saying the same thing. The 95% number they're shouting from the rooftops is a very specific point in time data point of peak efficacy. Yes the second dose indeed produces a 95% reduction. The question is "for how long". And it doesn't appear to be a question that anyone is eager to answer. They keep saying "we need more time" and "It's too early to tell". BS. The same test group that was sampled at 30 days to get that number 60 days ago can be sampled again now 90+ days later for antibody counts or infection. The first study that I've seen past 30 days is the one above and they're showing a pretty concerning drop down to 58% at day 42 after a single dose. With two doses to achieve the extra 15% efficacy does that drop to pretty meaningless numbers at the 60 or 90-day mark? I don't know and it's concerning that they're not being open with the data.
 
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Mom got her second shot a week ago. Don't remember which one she got. Wasn't concerned about the first. It was the second shot that had me nervous. Fatigue. Sore arm. Low grade fever easily controlled by aspirin. I'll take it. Pretty sad when you fear the vaccine your 72 year old mother is getting more than her getting the freaking virus.
Hope mom is well. Wife, 77, got first pfizer very mild sore arm