As for the overall deer population, Tonkovich described the situation as somewhat “static.” He said he isn’t certain what’s behind the harvest decline of the past two years, although some signs point to fewer deer in counties where populations have tended to run high.
There is, though, a hitch in that assumption.
The models used to determine deer numbers are based on the annual harvest. What remains an unknown, however, is hunter effort. People are either spending a little time to fill a tag or a lot of time to do so. If hunters are giving up before they get a deer because of weather, lack of tenacity or any other reason, the decline in harvest might not be an indication that the deer numbers have fallen.
The division mailed more than 20,000 surveys and emailed another 16,000 to deer hunters in an attempt to get a handle on the effort factor in the deer-harvest equation. However, Tonkovich said the lack of response makes drawing conclusions sketchy and difficult.
Taking several minutes to fill out a survey and returning it in a timely manner, Tonkovich said, can help the division determine the missing piece that indicates whether regulations need to be tightened or loosened in a county. Based on harvest numbers alone, it’s possible that population estimates can lag behind by several years before the true deer numbers become apparent.
“If a hunter wants to make a difference, that’s where a hunter can make a difference,” he said. “ The thing we don’t know is effort. What we don’t know is whether people are hunting less because there are fewer deer. Or, are they just hunting less, and so it seems like there are fewer deer.”
